Historical and Monte Carlo simulation-based reliability assessment of power distribution systems

Abstract

Historical reliability assessment, which is based on past real data, is vital for utilities since it reflects the system's operational behavior best. Therefore, most utilities prefer historical reliability assessment rather than a predictive assessment. This paper includes two major parts; the first part analyses the historical data for four feeders sector of the Bosporus Electricity Distribution Incorporated distribution grid based on their historical collected data, while, the second part of the paper uses the analyzed historical data as a reference input for the Monte Carlo simulation method to assess the future reliability analysis. The results show that the proposed reliability assessment methodology is a powerful tool for the future reliability assessment of power distribution grids.